A viral post says Elon Musk will build a city of one million people on Mars by 2054. The one million figure is real. But we could not find 2054 in anything Musk or SpaceX has published. Here is what is on the record.
SpaceX’s stated goal is a permanent Mars colony of at least one million people. That number is written into Musk’s pay deal. According to Fortune, a huge block of new SpaceX shares only vests if the company reaches a $7.5 trillion market value and that colony exists. Reuters reported the same two conditions.
On February 8, Musk wrote on X that SpaceX had shifted its focus to a self-growing city on the Moon, which he said could take less than 10 years, “whereas Mars would take 20+ years”. He added that SpaceX would start building a Mars city in about five to seven years, NBC News reported.
Where does 2054 come from?
No SpaceX filing or Musk post we found names 2054. The closest match is a 2024 post, reported by GeekWire, in which Musk said a Mars city could come within 20 years, “but for sure in 30”. Thirty years from 2024 is 2054. But that post was not a promise about one million people.
Musk’s timelines have a history of slipping. NBC News noted he has a long record of ambitious deadlines that did not arrive on schedule. In 2016, for example, he said he wanted an uncrewed Mars flight as early as 2018 and a crewed one by 2024, according to Yahoo News.
For now, one million people on Mars is a stated goal, not a scheduled event. SpaceX has told investors its nearer priority is the Moon, with an uncrewed landing targeted for March 2027, the Wall Street Journal reported. We looked at that plan in our story on Moon factories.
