Tesla sold about 12% fewer cars to customers in China in the first nine months of 2026, while exports from its Shanghai factory more than doubled. Data from the China Passenger Car Association shows domestic retail sales of 381,088 vehicles through September, down 11.9% from 432,704 a year earlier. On Monday, October 12, China also announced a cut to its export tax rebate on electric vehicles.
What the numbers show
Third-quarter retail sales fell 16% to 142,133. July was down 33%, and September was down 9.4% to 64,837. Exports rose 108%, from 173,660 to 361,972 cars. Total wholesale, which counts both, rose 22.5% to 743,060 from 606,364. Exports are now 49% of wholesale, up from 29% a year earlier.
China’s electric vehicle retail market as a whole fell 12.8% through September, so Tesla’s decline roughly matches the market. Shanghai’s third-quarter wholesale of 275,111 vehicles equals about 57% of Tesla’s 486,532 global deliveries for the quarter, though wholesale and deliveries are not counted the same way.
The rebate cut
China’s Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration said the value-added tax rebate on exported electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles will fall from 13% to 9% on April 1, 2027. A smaller rebate means exporters get less money back on each car shipped abroad. We have not seen a Tesla comment on the change.
Our take: Tesla’s Shanghai plant now works more for the rest of the world than for China, with about half its volume going abroad. The rebate cut is a cost that starts in April, not an immediate one, but it lands on the part of the business that is growing. Our earlier look at September: Tesla’s China-Made Sales Rise 5%, but Exports Drive Growth. Tesla reports results on October 21.
