A Barclays analyst says Tesla and SpaceX could announce a merger before Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting, which must be held by December 6. Analyst Dan Levy wrote the note on Wednesday, October 14. Neither Tesla nor SpaceX has announced, confirmed or filed anything about a deal.
What the analyst says
Levy said recent comments from management suggest both companies see benefits in combining, and that the real value would come from “vertical integration.” He pointed to the joint Terafab chip plant as a main driver and said a deal would be a complex process needing approval from both boards. His estimate is that each Tesla share could be swapped for about 0.7 SpaceX shares, but that is his guess, not a proposed term.
What bettors think
Prediction markets are far less sure. On Polymarket, traders put the odds of a merger by the end of 2026 at about 24%, and by the end of 2027 at about 63%. Those odds move every day.
Why the talk keeps coming back
SpaceX bought Musk’s AI company xAI in February, and Musk has said the companies work closely together in several areas. A June filing shows he holds about 19.9% of Tesla’s voting power, and he has said he wants 25%. At SpaceX he holds roughly 85% of the voting rights through shares that carry 10 votes each.
Our take: a forecast is not a deal. Two boards and a shareholder vote stand between a note like this and a merger, and the market odds suggest most traders expect it later, if at all. Watch Tesla’s earnings call on October 21, which we covered in Tesla Sets Its Q3 Earnings Report for Wednesday, October 21, and the notice for the annual meeting. The Terafab plan is explained in Musk Says His Companies Will Build and Run Terafab, Not TSMC.
